2024 MLB mock draft 3.0: Predictions for all 30 first-round picks (2024)

The 2024 MLB draft starts Sunday, so let's project how the first round could play out this weekend with my mock draft 3.0.

The intrigue starts right at the top this year, as the Cleveland Guardians have a difficult decision to make with the No. 1 pick in a draft featuring a strong group of college players in contention to come off the board first. What will the Guardians do -- and how will the Cincinnati Reds and Colorado Rockies follow with the No. 2 and No. 3 picks?

This is my next-to-last mock draft of the 2024 draft cycle, with an updated 3.1 version coming hours before Round 1 begins Sunday. And remember, this is the order in which I think the players will come off the board, while my rankings are the order in which I'd pick the players.

Final updated Mock draft 3.1: New No. 1 overall pick

MLB draft tracker live updates: Results, analysis for every first-round pick

1. Cleveland Guardians

JJ Wetherholt, SS, West Virginia

I'm pretty sure Cleveland is still considering five players, and I think I know who all five are. My current handicap here is Wetherholt at a 45% chance, Travis Bazzana a 40% chance, Jac Caglianone a 10% chance, Charlie Condon 4% and Chase Burns at 1%.

Obviously, this will be a bonus price-dependent decision. Bazzana's camp may believe they have the player atop the Guardians board (I also believe that) and ask for $9.21 million, breaking Paul Skenes' $9.2 million bonus record (under the current hard-slotting draft rules). Cleveland could then argue that he should take a discount because they have a viable, comparable option in Wetherholt and that Bazzana won't go until the fourth pick if Cleveland passes; I believe both of those things, as well.

So, does the Bazzana camp gamble by sticking to a high number and risk him falling to the fourth pick, or do they opt to cut their ask to a bit below Skenes' record? And what will Wetherholt's price point be? And, for that matter, what will it be for the other three players Cleveland could have interest in here?

I would expect the price check calls will be made within an hour of the pick being turned in, so I don't think any of the parties involved know how this will work out yet, which is why I've been getting calls from teams picking in the top 10 and agents of players expecting to go in the top 10, preparing for all eventualities.

My guess right now is Bazzana's asking price stays up around Skenes' figure; Wetherholt comes in $1 million (or even a bit more) cheaper than Bazzana; Condon and Caglianone become secondary options as they expect to go in the next few picks so they also have prices near Bazzana; and Burns is just harder to draft as the pitcher among four comparable position players.

2. Cincinnati Reds

Jac Caglianone, 1B, Florida

The buzz here most of the spring was that Condon would be the pick here if he doesn't go No. 1, but now the tide is turning a bit and Caglianone or Burns seem to be the leading options, with price a minor factor. I think the hitter wins the toss-up if the bonus prices are similar. I don't get the impression that Bazzana is seen as a real option here, but I'm also not positive about that.

3. Colorado Rockies

Charlie Condon, 3B, Georgia

I think part of the reason Condon seems like less of an option at the second pick is that Colorado's slot here is $9.07 million. The Rockies can easily push that to $9.21 million and give the top player on my board the record-breaking bonus that I think his camp is trying to land.

Rockies GM Bill Schmidt was the scouting director in 2013 and he really wanted to get Kris Bryant to the No. 3 pick, but the Cubs took him second overall and Schmidt picked Jon Gray. He then waited until early 2022 and finally landed his man, giving Bryant seven years, $182 million (so far getting minus-1.2 WAR in the exchange).

My comp for Condon is Bryant, and they're undeniably very similar players. The Rockies like taking college arms with their top pick if they don't fall in love with a hitter; I think Condon and Caglianone are the two they love, with Burns their pick if neither hitter gets here.

4. Oakland Athletics

Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State

This has long been seen as the landing spot for Bazzana if he doesn't go No. 1. The slot here is $8.37 million and I would expect him to get full slot if he falls to this pick, so the question then becomes what would be the midpoint for Bazzana to maximize his earnings but also give Cleveland a good enough price point to take him over Wetherholt? Does his camp think of it this way or just think he is worth a certain amount of dollars at the first pick and a different amount here?

There had long been buzz of Nick Kurtz being the option here, but that has really died down. Now Braden Montgomery is assumed to be the pick if Condon, Bazzana and Caglianone go in the first three picks. Wetherholt going No. 1 would throw a wrench into that chalk scenario and I think would cause Oakland to take whichever hitter gets here. I haven't heard much talk of pitching being an option at this pick.

5. Chicago White Sox

Konnor Griffin, SS, Jackson Prep (Mississippi) HS

This is the first spot where Griffin is a real threat to be taken, with the ninth pick the next spot. I think the White Sox, like Oakland, also want a shot at one of the four college bats that in this scenario all go in front of their pick. I think this decision would come down to Griffin, Montgomery and Burns. Griffin seems like he'd offer the best bonus price and Burns may be looking at an overslot bonus at the next pick, so Griffin gets the nod here.

6. Kansas City Royals

Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest

I think Burns is the target here and he also fits the competitive situation the Royals are in now, as he could be in the big leagues as early as this summer as a reliever, if they're inclined to try it. Like the previous few picks, I think the Royals are hoping one of the consensus top-five talents (Condon, Bazzana, Wetherholt, Caglianone, Burns) gets to their pick, with Bryce Rainer or Montgomery as the leading options if the top five all go ahead of No. 6.

7. St. Louis Cardinals

Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas

I assume this is as low as any of those consensus top five will fall, but they don't in this scenario, instead giving the Cardinals a shot at picking a potential frontline starter in Smith. Rainer has been discussed here, but I think Smith and Montgomery are the realistic options.

8. Los Angeles Angels

Braden Montgomery, RF, Texas A&M

The wacky rumors begin here. I think Montgomery is a good fit but may not be quite the rush-to-the-big-leagues sort of hitter that the Angels have targeted in the past. Swerving even harder against that history, Rainer is a real option here, and I think they'd consider either of the top college pitchers if they made it this far.

They've also been mentioned with almost all of the college bats in this range, particularly the most polished (Kurtz, James Tibbs III) but also Christian Moore.

9. Pittsburgh Pirates

Bryce Rainer, SS, Harvard Westlake (California) HS

This is probably as far as Rainer will fall, as he is a leading option from picks six through 10. Griffin likely goes here if he doesn't go fifth, but if both the Pirates and White Sox pass, he would likely fall to 11 or maybe even further. Both Florida State hitters (Tibbs, Cam Smith) are in the mix here, as is prep lefty Cam Caminiti.

10. Washington Nationals

James Tibbs III, RF, Florida State

I still don't know if the Nats' board looks like past Nats' draft boards, given the new execs involved. Rainer seems like the player they're angling for (that would fit the historical tendencies of high-upside players) with Tibbs and Montgomery (who do not) as other likely options and Caminiti also being considered (definitely fits).

11. Detroit Tigers

Cam Caminiti, LHP, Saguaro (Arizona) HS

Caminiti's most likely landing spots are here and the Giants at No. 13. Caleb Lomavita's conversation starts here, but ranges into the 20s. I'm unclear on which of the college bats the Tigers would take if they fall here (Kurtz is the semi-unexpected one in this scenario) or if they'd pull Griffin's name if he got to this pick. Chase Harlan is a target for their next pick.

12. Boston Red Sox

Christian Moore, 2B, Tennessee

Moore's leading spots to land are here, eighth to the Angels, and 16th to the Marlins. Kurtz and Griffin could also be the pick if they happen to be on the board. Trey Yesavage is also in the mix for most of the teams picking at Nos. 11-15.

13. San Francisco Giants

Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest

This is the first spot where I think Vance Honeycutt is a threat to be picked, especially if none of the top tier bats makes it down here; in this case, Kurtz does. Caminiti and Cam Smith are also squarely in the mix.

14. Chicago Cubs

Cam Smith, 3B, Florida State

The Cubs appear to be hunting for upside here and Smith fits the description. He has big tools and solid performance in the ACC, but needs a swing rework in pro ball. I think he'll go between Nos. 11-16 and, like Yesavage, is in the mix for most teams in that span.

Kellon Lindsey for an underslot deal would be the option if the Cubs don't like what they're looking at when on the clock. Yesavage, Brody Brecht, Seaver King and Ryan Waldschmidt have also been mentioned.

15. Seattle Mariners

Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina

This has long been suspected to be Yesavage's floor, and I think that's still true. Caminiti is also a real option if he's still on the board and I'm hearing Jurrangelo Cijntje is also in the pitching-heavy mix for this pick. Theo Gillen is the only strong position player connection here, but King is also mentioned.

16. Miami Marlins

Seaver King, SS, Wake Forest

I think the Marlins are looking for a college bat here with King being the last one left. Carter Johnson (or possibly PJ Morlando) are rumored underslot options here if they don't like what's left.

17. Milwaukee Brewers

Carson Benge, RF, Oklahoma State

The Brewers are all over Benge and he'll go in the next four picks or so if he doesn't go here. Gillen, Waldschmidt and Cijntje have also been mentioned.

18. Tampa Bay Rays

Kellon Lindsey, SS, Hardee (Florida) HS

Lindsey is a hometown pick for the Rays and this would begin his range, likely going in the next 7-10 picks if not at No. 14 or here. This is probably the floor for Smith and Caminiti.

19. New York Mets

Vance Honeycutt, CF, North Carolina

I'm hearing the Mets are looking at explosively athletic types here, with Honeycutt, Dakota Jordan and Tyson Lewis among the options.

20. Toronto Blue Jays

Theo Gillen, 2B, Westlake (Texas) HS

Gillen is in play from pick 15 to the early 20s and I assume he'll go right around this spot. King, Walker Janek, Benge, Cijntje and Malcolm Moore have all been mentioned here; it's sounding like the pick will be a position player.

21. Minnesota Twins

Ryan Waldschmidt, LF, Kentucky

Waldschmidt is mentioned all through the teens and 20s and I happen to have him landing in about the middle of that range, but he and King may have the widest ranges of landing spots among likely first-rounders. I'm hearing Brecht, Benge, Lomavita, Doughty and Gillen at this pick.

22. Baltimore Orioles

Kaelen Culpepper, SS, Kansas State

This is likely the floor for Benge and the ceiling for Culpepper. Baltimore has been mentioned with Lindsey, Honeycutt and Jordan along with Brecht, as they seem to be shooting for upside in most cases.

23. Los Angeles Dodgers

Kash Mayfield, LHP, Elk City (Oklahoma) HS

Mayfield has long been tied here, with a couple of spots above and below this pick as potential landing spots. Cijntje and Brecht are also tied to this pick and a few before and behind, so I'd expect them all to go around here.

24. Atlanta Braves

Brody Brecht, RHP, Iowa

Brecht, Cijntje, King, Benge, Doughty and Johnson are all mentioned at this pick.

25. San Diego Padres

Jurrangelo Cijntje, RHP/LHP, Mississippi State

Lindsey and Mayfield probably stop here if they make it this far. A number of other high school players (Boston Bateman, Johnson, etc.) are also tied here, as usual, but I think some of the college players still on the board (such as Lomavita) will be tempting to the usually prep-minded Padres.

26. New York Yankees

Caleb Lomavita, C, Cal

I keep hearing college bats at this pick, so I assume the Yankees will clean up whatever players make it here who aren't supposed to get this far. In this case, that's college catching with Lomavita, Janek and Malcolm Moore all still on the board. Dante Nori and Boston Bateman are targets for their next pick.

27. Philadelphia Phillies

PJ Morlando, RF, Summerville (South Carolina) HS

I'm hearing mostly power arms and power bats at this pick (Morlando mentioned the most), but the Phillies are subject to what happens to get to this pick, like the other teams in this area. Could another plus-running catcher in Lomavita be ready as J.T. Realmuto's replacement by the time his contract ends?

28. Houston Astros

Tyson Lewis, SS, Millard West HS (Nebraska)

Jordan has long been tied here, as has Honeycutt, if they last this long. Houston is also looking at a few collegiate shortstops (Kyle DeBarge, Griff O'Ferrall) and some prep ones (Caleb Bonemer, Wyatt Sanford), while pitchers seem less likely.

29. Arizona Diamondbacks

Carter Johnson, SS, Oxford (Alabama) HS

The D-backs also have the 31st and 35th picks, so these three will likely work in concert, with the prevailing belief that these picks will be at least two position players and at least two high school players.

Johnson is a threat to go at the next pick to Texas, so he may be the one to take here rather than try to float him down. Ryan Sloan and William Schmidt are two prep righties mentioned here, and the college infielders in this range (Culpepper, DeBarge, O'Ferrall) also come up.

30. Texas Rangers

Malcolm Moore, C, Stanford

This has been considered Moore's floor for a while and in this scenario, he lands here. Johnson is a leading option here and will go soon after this pick if Texas doesn't take him. Lewis is another rumored name for this pick while Jared Thomas and Bonemer also get some interest in the late 20s and into the 30s.